All of a sudden, the Russo-Ukrainian War is heating up. Ukraine apparently mounted a successful naval operation against Russia's Black Sea fleet, and not for the first time. The Black Sea Fleet actually reminds me of McHale's Navy. Then on Friday, Russia launched a massive air attack on Ukraine, utilizing drones, cruise missiles, and anything else in their arsenal that can fly and explode. In a tit to Russia's tat, Ukraine responded by launching an aerial assault on the Russian city of Belgorod, killing at least 21.
I know I'm no expert on military matters, but I have read a good deal on the subject over the years. But even a non-expert can recognize what works and what doesn't. What doesn't seem to be working is the slugfest currently going on between the Ukrainian and the Russian armies. The current conflict reminds me of WWI, because of the stalemate that seems to exist and the sheer scale of the casualties suffered by both sides. Consider: When the current war began, Russia had an army of about 360,000 troops. Of that number, 315,000 have been casualties, (the number either killed or wounded). Ukrainian casualties were about 131,000. While both of these estimates are just that, I tend to trust them.
During the entirety of this conflict, Ukraine has defied expectations, but the truth is that they're never going to win a slugfest against Mother Russia. What they need to do is to start experimenting with asymmetric warfare. Ukraine's dealings with the Russian navy have been more successful than not, and they should do more of it. I've always had a fantasy of a naval raid on the resort city of Sochi, where Mr. Putin has his billion dollar dacha. Russian civilians have been largely insulated from the direct effects of war, and Ukranian attacks on Russian civilians may well change Mr. Putin's cost-benefit analysis. Maybe a bomb being set off in the Moscow Metro would have the effect of concentrating civilian minds on the collateral costs of war. Perhaps a bomb planted in the Winter Palace in St. Petersburg would drive tourists away. Guerilla campaigns work because they strike when and where an assault is least expected. Such campaigns demoralize the civilian population, and demoralized people have a tendency to lose faith in their government.
But is it ever ethical to target civilians? The overriding urge to refrain from targeting civilians is commendable,but you have to realize that it's also a fairly recent development in man's long history of warfare. The horror and carnage of the 20th century's global wars gave mankind pause. The Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928 prohibited the use of war as an instrument of foreign policy and, to my knowledge, has never been renounced, which says a good deal about the effectiveness of the late League of Nations. WWII ended in the annihilation of two mid- sized Japanese cities in a nuclear inferno, and the incineration of the national capital, Tokyo, were all targeted at civilians, as were the end of war firebombing of German cities like Cologne and Berlin; Dresden and Hamburg. Casualties from bombing raids during WWII in the European Theatre of Operation is estimated to be around 400,0000. In the War against Japan, the Firebombing of Tokyo incinerated somewhere around 100,000 souls and left a million people homeless. And Tokyo was not the only city that suffered from bombing. After WWII, the international community worked on promulgating a series of so-called 'Rules of War', which were designed to protect civilians. The term is often used interchangeably with 'Geneva Conventions'.
To me, if either party to a conflict expects their civilian pop[ulation to be spared being the targets of an enemy's fire, they must, in turn, be willing to not fire on their enemy's civilian population. Adherence to the rules of war should not be a suicide pact. You can't expect to make war on the civilian population of a foe and then complain when your foe retaliates in kind. When an enemy spends decades firing rockets at your civilian population, don't complain when they target your's, especially when said projectiles are fired from the midst of civilian populations.
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